The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.355% on Wednesday, marking its highest level in four weeks, as investor uncertainty about the economy continues to grow.
US 10-year Treasury yield rise to four-week high
Concerns about a potential recession are becoming more pronounced, with market expectations pointing to a downturn in late 2025. The combination of weak economic data and shifting geopolitical dynamics is weighing on market sentiment. President Trump’s changing tariff policies have raised fears of a global trade war, which could significantly disrupt supply chains and slow US economic growth.
Adding to the pressure, consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in 12 years, reflecting widespread pessimism about the economic outlook. Moreover, new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—a key gauge of business investment—declined for the first time in four months, signaling a slowdown in corporate spending.
Investor eye US PCE data
With these mixed economic signals, investors are now closely watching the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may delay any rate cuts, maintaining higher yields for longer and potentially dampening economic recovery prospects. The uncertainty surrounding both domestic economic conditions and global trade policy is likely to keep yields elevated, contributing to increased market volatility in the coming months.
