U.S. trade policy impact on OECD’s forecasts
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OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development – published its Interim Economic Outlook report on Monday, March 17th, estimating that global GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2025, but with a 0.2% loss compared to december’s forecasts. In 2026, growth will slow down to 0.3% – compared to the 3.2% growth of 2024.
The consequences of Trump administration's trade war are already affecting global economies: growth of most of examined countries is stalled compared to estimates from a few months ago – prior to Trump’s second term – while U.S. inflation rises to 2.8%. The OECD report takes into account U.S. tariffs and countermeasures adopted by Mexico, China, and Canada, but not those announced by the EU.
According to the OECD report, in 2025, U.S. GDP will increase by 2.2% - compared to the 2.4% forecasted in December - while in 2026, growth will stop at 1.6% (-0.5%). The countries that could suffer a more significant economic backlash are Canada and Mexico, which have economies that rely heavily on trade. Canada's growth could slow by 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, while Mexico could enter a recession phase, with its GDP falling by 1.3% in 2025.
In the Eurozone, forecasts show 1% growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, also lower than the December estimates. Italian GDP growth will increase by 0.7% in 2025, losing 0.2% compared to forecasts, and it could remain below 1% in 2026. The report, however, confirms forecasts for the Chinese economy, which could grow by 4.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
The consequences of Trump administration's trade war are already affecting global economies: growth of most of examined countries is stalled compared to estimates from a few months ago – prior to Trump’s second term – while U.S. inflation rises to 2.8%. The OECD report takes into account U.S. tariffs and countermeasures adopted by Mexico, China, and Canada, but not those announced by the EU.
According to the OECD report, in 2025, U.S. GDP will increase by 2.2% - compared to the 2.4% forecasted in December - while in 2026, growth will stop at 1.6% (-0.5%). The countries that could suffer a more significant economic backlash are Canada and Mexico, which have economies that rely heavily on trade. Canada's growth could slow by 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, while Mexico could enter a recession phase, with its GDP falling by 1.3% in 2025.
In the Eurozone, forecasts show 1% growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, also lower than the December estimates. Italian GDP growth will increase by 0.7% in 2025, losing 0.2% compared to forecasts, and it could remain below 1% in 2026. The report, however, confirms forecasts for the Chinese economy, which could grow by 4.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.