The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 4.32% on Monday, its highest level in three weeks, driven by pro-inflationary data ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision.
US 10-year yield rises to three-week high
While headline retail sales in February grew less than expected, the sharp increase in the control group—which excludes non-core sectors—suggests strong private consumption that could influence upcoming U.S. GDP figures.
Meanwhile, the latest University of Michigan survey indicated that inflation expectations reached their highest level in over two weeks, hinting that President Trump’s aggressive tariff threats may already be shaping household and business spending patterns.
Fed expected to maintain rates unchanged
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but the release of the Summary of Economic Projections will provide insight into how policymakers are balancing the inflationary pressures from tariffs against their potential drag on economic growth. Markets have currently priced in two additional rate cuts for the year.
