The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the U.S., which excludes food and energy, slowed to 3.1% in February 2025, down from 3.3% in the previous month and below the expected 3.2%.
US inflation rate below forecasts
This marks the lowest rate since April 2021. The shelter index, responsible for over two-thirds of the total 12-month increase, rose 4.2% year-over-year—the smallest gain since December 2021 and lower than January’s 4.4%. Other indexes also increased, including motor vehicle insurance (+11.1%), medical care (+2.9%), recreation (+1.8%), and education (+3.7%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.2% in February, down from January’s 10-month high of 0.4%, and below the forecasted 0.3% increase.
What influenced consumer prices
The annual U.S. inflation rate eased to 2.8% in February 2025 from 3% in January, falling short of the projected 2.9%. Energy costs declined 0.2% year-over-year, following a 1% rise in January—the first increase in six months. Gasoline prices dropped (-3.1% vs. -0.2%), as did fuel oil (-5.1% vs. -5.3%), while natural gas prices surged (6% vs. 4.9%). Inflation slowed for shelter (4.2% vs. 4.4%), used cars and trucks (0.8% vs. 1%), and transportation (6% vs. 8%), while new vehicle prices continued to decline (-0.3%).
Food inflation accelerated
Conversely, food inflation accelerated slightly (2.6% vs. 2.5%). On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, down from January’s 0.5% rise—the highest since August 2023—and below the expected 0.3%. Additionally, annual core inflation declined to 3.1% from 3.3%, under the anticipated 3.2%, while monthly core inflation slowed to 0.2% from 0.4%, also below forecasts of 0.3%.
