Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 5,000 from the previous week to 219,000 in the period ending February 15th, surpassing market expectations of 215,000.
US initial jobless claims rise slightly
While the increase suggests some moderation in the labor market, overall levels remain historically low, reinforcing the view that employment conditions are still strong. Meanwhile, continuing claims stood at 1,869,000 after the first week of February, closely aligning with forecasts of 1,870,000.
Four-week moving average edges down
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure of trends in jobless claims, edged down by 1,000 to 215,250, indicating that despite slight fluctuations, the labor market remains resilient. This aligns with commentary from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, who have emphasized that the job market, while gradually cooling from its post-pandemic peak, continues to support economic stability.
Despite this, some labor market shifts are occurring beneath the surface. The report does not account for federal employees who were recently laid off following the dissolution of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). These workers file separately under the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program, meaning their claims do not appear in state-level jobless data.
Possible developments
Looking ahead, analysts remain focused on labor market trends as they assess the Federal Reserve’s next moves on monetary policy. While employment remains robust, policymakers will be watching for any signs of a slowdown that could influence the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts later this year.
