The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note recovered from earlier losses to settle at approximately 4.42% on Friday, as recent data reinforced the expectation that the Federal Reserve may need to slow the pace of rate cuts.
US 10-tear treasury yield pares losses
The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 55.3 in November, signaling the strongest growth in private sector activity since April 2022, with services accelerating and the manufacturing downturn easing. The probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed next month is now around 55%, down from 60% earlier in the day.
Eyes on Trump's policies
Treasury yields have also been supported by expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's policies—especially on tariffs, immigration, and taxes—could reignite inflation and constrain the Fed's ability to reduce borrowing costs.
