Market Outlook: key economic events for the week
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As we enter the week of October 28 to November 1, markets are set for several significant economic releases and central bank updates across key economies. The upcoming data will offer insights into inflation trends, labor market conditions, and GDP growth in major regions, with particular focus on Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, and the U.S.
Market Outlook: Key Economic Events for October week
U.S. Economic Indicators in Focus
In the U.S., Tuesday starts with consumer data, as the CB Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS job openings provide insight into consumer and job market strength. Later in the week, the core PCE Price Index, ADP non-farm employment, and Q3 advance GDP will draw attention. The consensus for the U.S. GDP growth remains at 3.0%, mirroring last quarter’s performance, thanks largely to consumer spending, especially in services. However, a softening labor market could impact spending if job growth slows. On Friday, the non-farm employment report and average hourly earnings are expected to show a modest cooling, with job growth anticipated at 111,000 compared to last month’s 254,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. This week’s data should offer clues about how resilient the U.S. labor market is heading into the year’s end.
Australia: Inflation Data Expected to Ease
Australia’s inflation data is set to be a highlight, with analysts expecting the headline figure to reach the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3% for the first time since mid-2021, mainly due to lower gasoline and electricity costs. However, core inflation may remain elevated, exceeding 3%, driven by a strong labor market. The market consensus is that the RBA will keep its monetary policy unchanged in November, though persistent core inflation could prompt future adjustments.
Japan: Bank of Japan’s Policy and Inflation Outlook
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, where no immediate change is expected. The BoJ’s quarterly outlook report will be in focus, with analysts anticipating a slight upward revision to inflation projections for this year. While Japan’s inflation has hovered around the BoJ’s 2% target, sustained inflation and wage growth could eventually lead to a rate hike in 2024, possibly as early as January or April.
Eurozone Inflation and Canada’s GDP
The Eurozone’s inflation data, expected Thursday, will gauge the region’s inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, Canada will release its monthly GDP data, offering insight into the Canadian economy’s health amid high global interest rates and inflationary pressures.
Summary: Key Trends and Takeaways
With a range of economic data and central bank reports this week, markets are poised for potential volatility. In the U.S., steady GDP growth and strong consumer spending support a soft-landing scenario, but labor market cooling remains a concern. Australia’s easing inflation could prompt further monetary policy assessments, while Japan’s BoJ will likely maintain its dovish stance for now. This week’s events provide an opportunity for traders to assess global economic resilience amid high interest rates and mixed inflation data.
Market Outlook: Key Economic Events for October week
U.S. Economic Indicators in Focus
In the U.S., Tuesday starts with consumer data, as the CB Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS job openings provide insight into consumer and job market strength. Later in the week, the core PCE Price Index, ADP non-farm employment, and Q3 advance GDP will draw attention. The consensus for the U.S. GDP growth remains at 3.0%, mirroring last quarter’s performance, thanks largely to consumer spending, especially in services. However, a softening labor market could impact spending if job growth slows. On Friday, the non-farm employment report and average hourly earnings are expected to show a modest cooling, with job growth anticipated at 111,000 compared to last month’s 254,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. This week’s data should offer clues about how resilient the U.S. labor market is heading into the year’s end.
Australia: Inflation Data Expected to Ease
Australia’s inflation data is set to be a highlight, with analysts expecting the headline figure to reach the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3% for the first time since mid-2021, mainly due to lower gasoline and electricity costs. However, core inflation may remain elevated, exceeding 3%, driven by a strong labor market. The market consensus is that the RBA will keep its monetary policy unchanged in November, though persistent core inflation could prompt future adjustments.
Japan: Bank of Japan’s Policy and Inflation Outlook
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, where no immediate change is expected. The BoJ’s quarterly outlook report will be in focus, with analysts anticipating a slight upward revision to inflation projections for this year. While Japan’s inflation has hovered around the BoJ’s 2% target, sustained inflation and wage growth could eventually lead to a rate hike in 2024, possibly as early as January or April.
Eurozone Inflation and Canada’s GDP
The Eurozone’s inflation data, expected Thursday, will gauge the region’s inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, Canada will release its monthly GDP data, offering insight into the Canadian economy’s health amid high global interest rates and inflationary pressures.
Summary: Key Trends and Takeaways
With a range of economic data and central bank reports this week, markets are poised for potential volatility. In the U.S., steady GDP growth and strong consumer spending support a soft-landing scenario, but labor market cooling remains a concern. Australia’s easing inflation could prompt further monetary policy assessments, while Japan’s BoJ will likely maintain its dovish stance for now. This week’s events provide an opportunity for traders to assess global economic resilience amid high interest rates and mixed inflation data.